Author: Adrian Willanger

The PCE Index release—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator—has shown favorable results. However, the overwhelming sentiment remains one of uncertainty due to the ongoing trade wars. With these conflicts still in full swing, inflation is expected to rise in the near future at a faster-than-anticipated pace. Following the recent trade truce with China, consumer sentiment has improved, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. As expected, consumer spending has declined noticeably, as the tariffs have led to short-term price increases. PCE IndexThe cost of living barely rose in April — and the rate of inflation slowed even closer to prepandemic levels…

Despite the recent pause on tariffs for Europe and progressing talks with China, the economic outlook remains largely negative across all sectors and markets. Although this week was relatively light on economic reports, the most notable was the Leading Economic Indicators, which showed a significant decline in every measurable category for April. This decline is largely attributed to the tariff policies implemented recently. Overall, the outlook remains pessimistic, despite other markets showing a more favorable reaction to the recent pauses on tariffs. U.S. Leading Economic Indicators The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US fell sharply by 1.0%…