Jobless Claims

An extremely light week following the FOMC, with the only note-worthy reporting being the Consumer Sentiment reports from the University of Michigan, which gives a long term outlook of the consumer on the economy. The report has come in well under expectations, much more so than any previous release in the last 6 months. This is largely due to the increase in the cost of living for every sector. Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell to 67.4 in a preliminary May reading, down from 77.2 in the prior month. Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index 15-Yr…

Week in Review With the passing of the Federal Open Market Committee rate decision panel, we now have definitively confirmed that the Federal Reserve intends to keep the rates at a two-decade high, for the sixth straight meeting by a unanimous vote. Jerome Powell had stated during the Q&A that they do not intend to cut rates until they have confidence that inflation will, “sustainably stay lower than the 2% objective.” Lending partners have responded in kind by a rush in an increase of rates the last three weeks in a row, with expectations tempered about impending rate cuts any…

At Wednesday's meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to maintain the current federal funds rate target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. This decision comes amidst conflicting economic signals. Tailing that, there is the Chicago PMI, Non-farm Payrolls, and the full release of the Consumer Confidence report. All of these are expected to match current economic conditions. The prior week's GDP numbers also factor into the equation, informing that economic growth has slowed this year compared to the previous year for Quarter 1. The PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred choice of inflation indicators, has shown inflation is…

Last week, the largest report was the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, leading into chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell speaking on the current state of the economy and the stance of the Federal Reserve. While the Beige Book has indicated some positive movement towards a strong economy, there have been many indicators from all inflation data that inflation has yet to be tamed to the standards of the Federal Reserve.  This was punctuated by Jerome Powell, as he discussed at length the Federal Reserve has yet to feel inflation is under control. This has dispelled all notion there will…

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is showing higher than expected inflation, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) is showing lower than expected inflation. The two are in conflict with each other; however, the Consumer Price Index is still the far greater indicator for inflation as it directly impacts the cost of living for everyone, not just production assets.  Given the Federal Reserve’s recent speeches it would seem that there is very likely to be a delay in the rate cuts this upcoming quarter. They have stated numerous times they are driven largely by data and that data has proven that…

With the upcoming CPI and PPI reports this week, last week still had a number of important data points to consider. First, the non-farm payroll data, helping reveal the situation of pay versus inflation data giving an overall description of the state of the economy in the future. Among that, the manufacturing data has shown to be contracting the past year, with the first signs of relief this month. Lastly, trade data has shown that the trade deficit has grown bigger than expected with Q1 coming to completion.  All of these are broader indicators of the state of the economy…