Mortgage Rates

This week, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data was released, and the results met expectations. This, along with recent GDP estimates, employment reports, and personal income/spending figures, paints a stable economic picture. It suggests that we may be on track for the Federal Reserve’s next round of rate cuts. The Federal Reserve has consistently stated its 2% inflation target and current figures show inflation at 2.1%. This indicates that a 'soft landing' for the economy could be within reach. PCI Index Prices in the U.S. rose modestly in September, but not enough to suggest inflation is rekindling or to prevent…

This week saw relatively light activity, primarily focused on discussions with the Federal Reserve Board. The only truly notable report released was the Consumer Sentiment Report, which happily reported that sentiment had risen for the month of October. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book survey noted a slight decline in manufacturing activity. Consumer Sentiment (Final) Confidence among Republicans in a potential Donald Trump victory helped drive consumer sentiment to a six-month high less than two weeks before the U.S. presidential election. The University of Michigan reported on Friday that the initial October reading of consumer sentiment rose to 70.5,…

The release of last week's inflation data has left this week with very few significant data updates. The most important information will come from various Federal Reserve members speaking on different topics. They have consistently emphasized that they will closely monitor the data to decide whether further rate cuts are needed in their upcoming rate decision meeting. Much of the market is optimistic that rate cuts will continue. Additionally, several smaller retail sales data releases are expected soon, which will provide insight into the current strength of the economy. Retail Sales Retail sales increased 0.4% in September, with strength in…

The CPI and PPI reports delivered their data, showing inflation figures slightly below expectations. However, the positive impact of these reports was tempered by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve members during recent meetings. Despite this, the overall outlook remains optimistic, as further rate cuts are anticipated. Lending partners have also responded positively, significantly lowering their lending rates over the past month. Consumer Credit Consumer credit increased by $8.9 billion in August, following a revised $26.6 billion surge in July, the Federal Reserve reported on Monday. This represents a 2.1% annual growth rate in August, a slowdown from the 6.3% rise…

Last week was a fairly light week, with the non-farm payroll data being the most significant release. The data showed that payrolls are growing at a faster rate than historical trends suggest, which could indicate that inflation is still above the Federal Reserve's target. In contrast, the upcoming week has a busy schedule, with many important economic releases lined up back to back. Non-Farm Payrolls Hourly pay for American workers rose a sharp 0.4% in September - above expectations - to put the increase over the past 12 months at 4.0%. That's up from 3.9% in the prior month. Wages…

With the release of the PCE Index data, we are seeing the trend hold as inflation continues to slow down. This gives the Federal Reserve room to continue its rate cuts in the future. Following the positive news for inflation data, the GDP has also seen a larger-than-expected growth of 3% this quarter. The only data running against the tide is the Consumer Confidence reports, which reported to show that consumers are at their most anxious since 2021. We should expect a greater impact on the lending and broader markets ahead of the elections. PCE Index The Federal Reserve’s preferred…